{"id":28113,"date":"2012-05-01T10:17:23","date_gmt":"2012-05-01T08:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/staging.sillon38.com\/?p=28113"},"modified":"2012-05-01T10:17:23","modified_gmt":"2012-05-01T08:17:23","slug":"foret-et-changement-climatique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sillon38.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/01\/foret-et-changement-climatique\/","title":{"rendered":"for\u00eat et changement climatique:"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Une nouvelle \u00e9tude men\u00e9e par des chercheurs de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Paris-Sud, de l\u2019INRA, du CNRS, du CEA, d\u2019AgroParisTech et de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Joseph Fourier de Grenoble a permis d\u2019\u00e9valuer, \u00e0 partir de huit mod\u00e8les de derni\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9ration, la r\u00e9ponse des for\u00eats au changement climatique, et de souligner les incertitudes associ\u00e9es. <\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019objectif de l\u2019analyse \u00e9tait de comparer les sorties de diff\u00e9rent types de mod\u00e8les \u00e9cologiques et de les combiner afin d\u2019avoir des scenarii plus fiables. L\u2019\u00e9tude a port\u00e9 sur une s\u00e9lection de cinq essences foresti\u00e8res dominantes en France. <\/span><\/p>\n

En g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, les auteurs montrent que les arbres des plaines de l’ouest, du sud-ouest et du centre de la France seront les plus fortement touch\u00e9s d’ici 2050. Le changement climatique compromettra l’avenir de certaines essences d’arbre en plaine, comme le pin sylvestre.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ces r\u00e9sultats viennent d\u2019\u00eatre publi\u00e9s dans la revue \u00ab\u00a0Ecology Letters\u00a0\u00bb.<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Le changement climatique n’est pas sans effets positifs sur les arbres. La croissance de certaines essences, comme le h\u00eatre, pourrait \u00eatre stimul\u00e9e dans le nord, l’est et en montagne. <\/span><\/div>\n
Plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, les mod\u00e8les pr\u00e9voient que toutes les esp\u00e8ces d’arbres \u00e9tudi\u00e9es progresseront en altitude, et que le ch\u00eane vert trouvera des climats favorables bien au nord de la r\u00e9gion M\u00e9diterran\u00e9enne d’ici 2050.<\/span><\/div>\n
<\/span>L’utilisation d’une grande gamme de mod\u00e8les, allant de mod\u00e8les statistiques \u00e0 des mod\u00e8les complexes de croissance des arbres, a permis d’identifier des incertitudes dans les pr\u00e9visions. Ainsi, il est difficile de pr\u00e9dire l’impact du changement climatique sans une meilleure connaissance des effets directs de l’augmentation de la teneur en CO2 atmosph\u00e9rique sur la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation.<\/span><\/div>\n
\n

Par exemple, les fortes teneurs en CO2 peuvent prot\u00e9ger les arbres contre la s\u00e9cheresse.<\/span><\/p>\n

En d\u00e9pit de ces incertitudes, la plupart des mod\u00e8les pr\u00e9voient un recul des esp\u00e8ces de climat temp\u00e9r\u00e9 en plaine. Cela concerne plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les essences telles que le h\u00eatre ou le ch\u00eane sessile dans les plaines de l’ouest, du sud-ouest et du centre.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ces r\u00e9sultats sont en accord avec d’autres projets de recherche comme \u00ab Dryade \u00bb qui ont montr\u00e9 que les s\u00e9cheresses extr\u00eames ou \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition, comme celles pr\u00e9vues \u00e0 l’avenir, ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 augment\u00e9 la vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 et la mortalit\u00e9 des arbres.<\/span><\/p>\n

Les r\u00e9sultats de ces travaux accomplis au sein du projet QDIV, soutenus par l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) et le GIS \u00ab\u00a0Climat, Environnement, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb ouvrent de nouvelles perspectives dans la recherche sur les effets du changement climatique sur la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation. <\/span><\/p>\n

En effet, ils montrent le besoin de combiner plusieurs mod\u00e8les \u00e9cologiques de distribution d\u2019esp\u00e8ce, comme le font les climatologues sur les mod\u00e8les de climat, afin de comprendre leurs incertitudes, mais aussi leurs qualit\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Que faire face \u00e0 de tels scenarii ? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avec cette nouvelle \u00e9tude, les scientifiques apportent des informations aux gestionnaires des for\u00eats leur permettant d\u2019anticiper les \u00e9volutions \u00e0 venir. Ces derniers se pr\u00e9parent d\u00e9j\u00e0 au changement climatique, en mettant en place diff\u00e9rentes strat\u00e9gies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Certaines consistent \u00e0 favoriser les esp\u00e8ces plus r\u00e9sistantes \u00e0 la chaleur et \u00e0 la s\u00e9cheresse aux d\u00e9pens d’esp\u00e8ces plus vuln\u00e9rables comme le pin sylvestre. <\/span><\/p>\n

Dans d’autres cas, la meilleure strat\u00e9gie consiste \u00e0 am\u00e9liorer la r\u00e9silience des for\u00eats \u2014 par exemple en renfor\u00e7ant la diversit\u00e9 sp\u00e9cifique et g\u00e9n\u00e9tique, ou en att\u00e9nuant la s\u00e9cheresse par une sylviculture plus \u00e9conome en eau \u2014 pour faire face \u00e0 un avenir incertain.<\/span><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n
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Modifications des aires de r\u00e9partition pr\u00e9vues pour le pin sylvestre d’ici 2055 dues au changement climatique. En rouge sur la carte, les r\u00e9gions bioclimatiques avec une perte quasi totale de climat favorable ; en marron clair, une perte mod\u00e9r\u00e9e ; en vert clair, une faible perte ; en beige, l’absence actuelle de pin sylvestre. Les pourcentages de perte pour chaque r\u00e9gion indiquent la moyenne des cinq mod\u00e8les. Les pr\u00e9visions de perte par les mod\u00e8les pris individuellement sont indiqu\u00e9es en m\u00e9daillon pour chaque r\u00e9gion.<\/span><\/h5>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
R\u00e9f\u00e9rences :
\nClimate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty, Alissar Cheaib, Vincent Badeau, Julien Boe, Isabelle Chuine, Christine Delire, Eric Dufr\u00eane, Christophe Fran\u00e7ois, Emmanuel S.Gritti, Myriam Legay, Christian Pag\u00e9, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Viovy and Paul Leadley. Ecology Letters, 12 mars 2012. DOI: 10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.
\nhttp:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.x\/abstract<\/a><\/span><\/h5>\n

Nos partenaires<\/strong><\/span>
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quelle \u00e9volution?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,28],"tags":[1143,2507,2959],"class_list":["post-28113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-foret","tag-changement-climatique","tag-foret","tag-inra"],"yoast_head":"\nfor\u00eat et changement climatique: -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sillon38.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/01\/foret-et-changement-climatique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"for\u00eat et changement climatique: -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"quelle \u00e9volution?\" \/>\n<meta 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